Srinagar, May 17: The heat wave scorching across the valley has increased the climate crises to the optimum level. Extreme temperatures, low rainfall, and scarcity of snow have caused widespread suffering, including deaths, crop loses forest fires, and cuts to power and water supplies
Looking at the cloudless sky, 61-year-old Farooq Ahmad, a farmer in Anantnag, enters his fields with a heavy heart due to unusual climatic conditions. A man may have reached the Moon and Mars but on the ground, his very existence is under the serious threat of extinction. Rapidly growing cosmopolitan phenomenon and urbanization are engulfing agriculture and grasslands, unabated industrial growth, fossil fuels powered traffic, and transportation are playing havoc with the atmosphere, and pollution, Freshwater resources are lakes, rivers, streams, or glaciers that are fading fast and turning biodiversity upside down, thus resulting in global warming and climate change.
By 2041, the World will witness the average temperature improving by 1.5 degree Celsius, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said in its bleak forecast in its report Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Climate change is regarded as a systematic issue that serves as a typical example of a “wicked problem” with a visible ripple effect. The scientists of the 6th assessment report by the IPCC voiced that climate change is “unequivocally caused by human activities” and that “human influence has warned the atmosphere, ocean and land”.
As scientific predictions become reality, the emergency is becoming palpable, indisputable, and widespread, with dramatic weather events reported with an ever-increasing frequency. Such patterns have disastrous, far-reaching effects on the natural world, global food supplies, health, infrastructure, and more.
Jammu and Kashmir saw a major drop in the number of snow spells this winter terming it as a wind vane of coming prolonged warmer months. Kashmir, also known as the Venice of Asia for the last two to three decades, has clear indications of climate change. Environmental behavior has gone through drastic overturns be it lakes and wetlands like Wular, Dal, and Anchar are turning into solid waste dumping sites or the Alpine glacial reservoirs from Thajiwas to Kolahai, Sheshnag to Siachen is melting faster than anticipated by researchers and environmental scientists with unforeseen disasters and calamities.
Manzoor Ahmad, 52 years old has little hope of growing any crop this year due to the erratic climate that struck Kashmir all seasons. The Flood in 2014 has already wrecked agricultural production. He was expecting a better harvest this year but climate change is projecting a shadow over his crops.
In 2016, the State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) stated that Kashmir has witnessed a rise in temperature of 1.45 degrees Celsius over the last two decades. This temperature rise is melting the glaciers of Kashmir which might lead to scarcity of water and a decrease in temperature productivity in the coming years. It also revealed that the quality of snowfall has reduced even in forest areas of Fakeer Gujri, located on the outskirts of Srinagar.
Farooq Ahmad, a saffron grower explained that “the production of saffron has declined now due to the unusual weather pattern. Every year there are more losses than gains. The unpredictable weather events have severely impacted the production of the traditional variety of all crops in the valley”.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), climate change affects the social and environmental determinants of health, clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. “Climate change is making farming difficult for us. Our crops need a set temperature, rainfall, and snowfall but unfortunately in recent times with changing climate. The crops are suffering, untimely snowfall damaged our crops last year also which is devastating for a farmer who is dependent on crops only with no crop insurance, we are at the mercy of the Lord”, says Nasir Ahmad, a local farmer.
Kashmiri's fragile ecosystem seems to be bearing the thrust of rising temperature and climate change, as at least three incidents of cloud bursts and a dozen flash floods were witnessed in July 2022. Climate change has manifested itself in unseasonal snowfall, heavy or scarcity of rainfall, and hailstorms in recent years.
Chillai Kalan starts on the 21st of December. It is a 40-day period, characterized by harsh weather and the freezing of water pipes, water storage tanks, and lakes. Chillai Kalan was followed by 20 day-long Chillai Khurd and a 10-day-long Chillai Bache. It is said that Kashmir usually sees a lot of snow during these 10 days. Over 40 days have passed but the Valley hasn’t seen any strong western disturbance. The Seas have been calm lately. The Mediterranean isn’t brewing any storm, said valley experts terming it as a weather vane of coming warmer months.
Faizan Arif, an independent weather forecaster says that “the temperature rise has disturbed the conditions in our atmosphere, and now, air can hold more moisture. IPCC in its reports has continuously warned of the deadly consequences of climate change”.
“These extreme events due to human-induced global warming are going to increase furthermore in J&K and Ladakh. There is still some time left to bring down this temperature. We have to cut our carbon dioxide emissions. The use of clean energy should be emphasized. Everything starts with a bit, a blizzard starts with a gentle snowflake, this will also start slowly, and over the years, I, you, and everyone will succeed in bringing down the temperatures. The water level of Jhelum is hitting all-time lowest figures. And if we don't do anything about it, water scarcity may arise. Farmers will be hit the most. People will be left without drinkable water. Where there are no second thoughts in it. He added that the action needs to be taken at the Global level, but it starts with every single individual”.
For a long time, it was believed that these environmental scientists predicting the harmful effects of climate change were a part of doomsday. Climate change affects human health in a variety of ways. Extreme changes in weather and environment can increase existing health problems, as well as create new ones.
As climate change progresses, researchers expect an increase in related health issues. According to WHO, researchers predict that certain effects of climate change will contribute to an increase of about 250,000 deaths per year between 2030 and 2050 from conditions such as heat stress, malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), suicide rates increase with higher temperatures. The CDC suggests that climate change and higher temperatures hurt depression and other mental health conditions. Climate change is not a sudden apocalypse but a continuous increase in extreme weather conditions, human casualties, species loss, and other calamities.
The climate crisis severely jeopardizes the realization of universal health coverage by compounding the existing burden of disease and by exacerbating existing barriers to accessing health services. Climatologists, researchers, and environmentalists all over the globe are expressing deep concerns regarding climate change mitigation.
The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare guidelines, climate change’s direct mental health consequences range from mild stress and sleep disturbances to mental health disorders like anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress, substance use, and many others. “Indirect mental health consequences of climate change can occur as a result of damage to physical health, food, and water shortage, and displacement due to intense climatic conditions” reads the MoHFW guideline.
Farmers in Kashmir are engaged in a grueling battle against the effects of climate change. The canals and streams branch out of the Jhelum River, which usually irrigates southern Kashmir’s paddy fields. In 2020, J& K recorded 979.1mm of rainfall against an average rainfall of 1258.7 mm. In 2021 the deficiency reached 29% when the Union Territory just recorded about 894.4 mm of rainfall. In 2022, J & K received only 99.5 mm of rainfall which is the lowest spring rainfall since 2005.
Dr. Mohammad Muslim, Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Kashmir opines that “two forces are responsible for the climate change which includes natural and anthropogenic forces. Anthropogenic activities increase the carbon level, leading to an increase in Green House Gases (GHGs) causing climatic variability in the atmosphere. Moreover, climate change is mainly drawn by regional variations”.
“We have to allow mitigating and adaptive measures to balance the climatic change, which can have strong implications on people living in Himalayan regions with strong regional variability in the atmosphere. Climate change has impacted freshwater resources by disturbing the hydrological cycle. We can see increased activity of Indian summer monsoons wind into the valley”, he added.
The recent study titled “Time series analysis of climate variability and trends in Kashmir Himalaya” published in Ecological Indicators also suggested that if current trends continue, this changing precipitation pattern may hurt the environment that will have a significant impact on the region’s food security and ecological sustainability.
The year 2022 saw the launch of Mission LiFE by Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, a flagship program to promote sustainable lifestyles across the globe. The central elements of Mission LiFE were sustainable patterns of consumption to address climate change as mentioned in the cover decision of the Sharm El Sheikh Implementation Plan of COP 27. Achieving the target of limiting global warming, SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals), and net zero emissions require a combination of policies, incentives, and technical support, and coordination of actions across multiple stakeholders.